Rouen 3–3 Toulouse: Result & Stats

Rouen

Pens

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Toulouse

1/21/2024

Coupe de France · Round of 32Stade Robert Diochon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rouen32%

×Draw25%

Toulouse43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RouenExpected goals in this matchToulouse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.57

Rouen

1.33

Toulouse

1.57

Toulouse creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

1.60

creates per match

2.14

1.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Rouen

1.60

Toulouse

2.14

allows per match

Rouen

1.00

Toulouse

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rouen+0.00on par

Toulouse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rouen ↓

Toulouse →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rouen or draw

57%

Rouen or Toulouse

75%

Draw or Toulouse

68%

Winning margin

Rouen wins by 2+

14%

Toulouse wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rouen 1+ goals

74%

Rouen 2+ goals

38%

Rouen 3+ goals

15%

Toulouse 1+ goals

79%

Toulouse 2+ goals

46%

Toulouse 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Rouen (draw refunded)

43%

Toulouse (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rouen at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Toulouse away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rouen attack 1.60 + Toulouse defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

Toulouse attack 2.14 + Rouen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rouen scores more

32%

level

25%

Toulouse scores more

43%

Toulouse at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff