Rotxapea 1–4 Valle Egüés: Result & Stats

Rotxapea

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Valle Egüés

3/29/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 28Campo de Fútbol IRATI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rotxapea32%

×Draw25%

Valle Egüés43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotxapeaExpected goals in this matchValle Egüés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.57

Rotxapea

1.31

Valle Egüés

1.57

Valle Egüés creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 90 away

1.24

creates per match

1.27

1.88

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Rotxapea

1.24

Valle Egüés

1.27

allows per match

Rotxapea

1.88

Valle Egüés

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotxapea+0.00on par

Valle Egüés+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotxapea ↓

Valle Egüés →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rotxapea or draw

57%

Rotxapea or Valle Egüés

75%

Draw or Valle Egüés

68%

Winning margin

Rotxapea wins by 2+

14%

Valle Egüés wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rotxapea 1+ goals

73%

Rotxapea 2+ goals

38%

Rotxapea 3+ goals

14%

Valle Egüés 1+ goals

79%

Valle Egüés 2+ goals

46%

Valle Egüés 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Rotxapea (draw refunded)

42%

Valle Egüés (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rotxapea at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Valle Egüés away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rotxapea attack 1.24 + Valle Egüés defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Valle Egüés attack 1.27 + Rotxapea defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rotxapea scores more

32%

level

25%

Valle Egüés scores more

43%

Valle Egüés at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Valle Egüés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff