Rotxapea 2–1 Huarte: Result & Stats

Rotxapea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Huarte

Ibai Alonso 89'

Eneko Ezcurra 39'

Eric Mawuli 90+1'

9/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 1Campo de Fútbol IRATI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rotxapea32%

×Draw24%

Huarte44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotxapeaExpected goals in this matchHuarte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.60

Rotxapea

1.32

Huarte

1.60

Huarte creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

1.24

creates per match

1.33

1.88

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Rotxapea

1.24

Huarte

1.33

allows per match

Rotxapea

1.88

Huarte

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotxapea+0.00on par

Huarte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotxapea ↓

Huarte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rotxapea or draw

56%

Rotxapea or Huarte

76%

Draw or Huarte

68%

Winning margin

Rotxapea wins by 2+

14%

Huarte wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rotxapea 1+ goals

73%

Rotxapea 2+ goals

38%

Rotxapea 3+ goals

15%

Huarte 1+ goals

80%

Huarte 2+ goals

47%

Huarte 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Rotxapea (draw refunded)

42%

Huarte (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotxapea at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Huarte away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotxapea attack 1.24 + Huarte defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Huarte attack 1.33 + Rotxapea defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rotxapea scores more

32%

level

24%

Huarte scores more

44%

Huarte at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Huarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Aimar Martínez← Ander Miranda

39'

Eneko Ezcurra

46'

Alfonso Aranguren← Iker Oroz

46'

Josu Moreno← Garralda

59'

Iñaki Alonso← Javier Romera

69'

Iker López← Hamza Chghaich

69'

Andoni Sucunza← Unai Martínez

71'

Xabier Equiza← Iñigo Erro

79'

Iker Hernández← Eneko Ezcurra

79'

Imanol Satrústegui← Aingeru Arellano

89'

Ibai Alonso

90+1'

Eric Mawuli

Rotxapea

Huarte

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Rodri Fernández

6'▲Aimar Martínez←▼Ander Miranda

69'▲Iker López←▼Hamza Chghaich

69'▲Andoni Sucunza←▼Unai Martínez

79'▲Iker Hernández←▼Eneko Ezcurra

Rotxapea substitutes

MartínezLópezSucunzaHernández

Manager: Pedro Sánchez

46'▲Alfonso Aranguren←▼Iker Oroz

46'▲Josu Moreno←▼Garralda

59'▲Iñaki Alonso←▼Javier Romera

71'▲Xabier Equiza←▼Iñigo Erro

79'▲Imanol Satrústegui←▼Aingeru Arellano

Huarte substitutes

ArangurenMorenoAlonsoEquizaSatrústegui

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Rotxapea 2–1 Huarte

Rotxapea beat Huarte 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 7, 2024.

Goals: Eneko Ezcurra (39'), Ibai Alonso (89'), Eric Mawuli (90+1').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol IRATI in Pamplona.

Rotxapea vs Huarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Rotxapea 2–1 Huarte