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Rotxapea vs Gares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Rotxapea
Rotxapea
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gares
Gares
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 32Campo de Fútbol IRATI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rotxapea52%
×Draw23%
Gares25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotxapea
1.84
Gares
1.19

Rotxapea creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

creates per match

Rotxapea
1.24
Gares
0.50

allows per match

Rotxapea
1.88
Gares
2.44

finishing

Rotxapea+0.00on par
Gares+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotxapea ↓

Gares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rotxapea or draw
75%
Rotxapea or Gares
77%
Draw or Gares
48%

Winning margin

Rotxapea wins by 2+
29%
Gares wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rotxapea 1+ goals
84%
Rotxapea 2+ goals
55%
Rotxapea 3+ goals
28%
Gares 1+ goals
70%
Gares 2+ goals
33%
Gares 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rotxapea (draw refunded)
68%
Gares (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotxapea at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Gares away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.44 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotxapea attack 1.24 + Gares defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.84

Gares attack 0.50 + Rotxapea defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rotxapea scores more
52%
level
23%
Gares scores more
25%

Rotxapea at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rotxapea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotxapea vs Gares

Rotxapea beat Gares 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol IRATI in Pamplona.