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Rotxapea vs Beti Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Rotxapea
Rotxapea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beti Onak
Beti Onak
12/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 16Campo de Fútbol IRATI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rotxapea35%
×Draw25%
Beti Onak40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotxapea
1.38
Beti Onak
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Rotxapea
1.24
Beti Onak
1.13

allows per match

Rotxapea
1.88
Beti Onak
1.51

finishing

Rotxapea+0.00on par
Beti Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotxapea ↓

Beti Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rotxapea or draw
60%
Rotxapea or Beti Onak
75%
Draw or Beti Onak
65%

Winning margin

Rotxapea wins by 2+
16%
Beti Onak wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rotxapea 1+ goals
75%
Rotxapea 2+ goals
40%
Rotxapea 3+ goals
16%
Beti Onak 1+ goals
78%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
44%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rotxapea (draw refunded)
46%
Beti Onak (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotxapea at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Beti Onak away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotxapea attack 1.24 + Beti Onak defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

Beti Onak attack 1.13 + Rotxapea defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rotxapea scores more
35%
level
25%
Beti Onak scores more
40%

Beti Onak at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beti Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotxapea vs Beti Onak

Rotxapea and Beti Onak drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol IRATI in Pamplona.