Vasby United vs Orgryte IS — Superettan 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 79+ matches
Vasby United46%
Orgryte IS28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Vasby United creates 36% more chances
Season form · 79 home / 122 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vasby United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vasby United at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.95 · 79 matches
Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vasby United attack 1.58 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52
Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + Vasby United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.12
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Vasby United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Vasby United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Falkenbergs FF
Varbergs BoIS FC
Landskrona BoIS
Vasteras SK FK
Oddevold
Helsingborg
Ostersunds FK
IK brage
Kalmar FF
Sandviken
Orebro SKOrgryte IS
GIF Sundsvall
IFK Norrkoping
United Nordic
Osters IF
Norrby IF
Ljungskile SK
Umeå FC
Utsikten
Trelleborg
IFK Varnamo
Hammarby TalangIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Vasby United host Orgryte IS on Monday, 2 July 2018 at 17:00. The match is part of the Superettan 2026/2027 season.
Vasby United 0 – 0 Orgryte IS
Vasby United and Orgryte IS drew 0-0 in Superettan on July 2, 2018.
The match was played at Tunavallen (Eskilstuna).