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Rottenmann vs Union RB Weinland Gamlit — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Rottenmann
Rottenmann
FT
5 – 1
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
9/4/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 2Paltenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rottenmann38%
×Draw22%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rottenmann
1.73
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 86 away

creates per match

Rottenmann
1.47
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.57

allows per match

Rottenmann
1.97
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
2.00

finishing

Rottenmann+0.00on par
Union RB Weinland Gamlit+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rottenmann ↓

Union RB Weinland Gamlit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rottenmann or draw
60%
Rottenmann or Union RB Weinland Gamlit
78%
Draw or Union RB Weinland Gamlit
62%

Winning margin

Rottenmann wins by 2+
19%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rottenmann 1+ goals
82%
Rottenmann 2+ goals
52%
Rottenmann 3+ goals
25%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 1+ goals
83%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2+ goals
53%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Rottenmann (draw refunded)
49%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rottenmann at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Union RB Weinland Gamlit away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rottenmann attack 1.47 + Union RB Weinland Gamlit defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Union RB Weinland Gamlit attack 1.57 + Rottenmann defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rottenmann scores more
38%
level
22%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit scores more
40%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union RB Weinland Gamlit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Rottenmann 5–1 Union RB Weinland Gamlit

Rottenmann beat Union RB Weinland Gamlit 5-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 4, 2020.

The match was played at Paltenstadion in Rottenmann.