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Rottenmann vs Liezen — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Rottenmann
Rottenmann
FT
2 – 2
Liezen
Liezen
5/7/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 24Paltenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rottenmann54%
×Draw21%
Liezen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rottenmann
2.10
Liezen
1.36

Rottenmann creates 54% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 42 away

creates per match

Rottenmann
1.47
Liezen
0.76

allows per match

Rottenmann
1.97
Liezen
2.74

finishing

Rottenmann+0.00on par
Liezen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rottenmann ↓

Liezen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Rottenmann or draw
75%
Rottenmann or Liezen
79%
Draw or Liezen
46%

Winning margin

Rottenmann wins by 2+
32%
Liezen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rottenmann 1+ goals
88%
Rottenmann 2+ goals
62%
Rottenmann 3+ goals
35%
Liezen 1+ goals
74%
Liezen 2+ goals
39%
Liezen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rottenmann (draw refunded)
69%
Liezen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rottenmann at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Liezen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rottenmann attack 1.47 + Liezen defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.10

Liezen attack 0.76 + Rottenmann defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rottenmann scores more
54%
level
21%
Liezen scores more
25%

Rottenmann at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rottenmann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rottenmann vs Liezen

Rottenmann and Liezen drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Paltenstadion in Rottenmann.