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Rottenmann vs Ilz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Rottenmann
Rottenmann
FT
1 – 3
Ilz
Ilz
8/29/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 1Paltenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rottenmann35%
×Draw22%
Ilz42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rottenmann
1.66
Ilz
1.83

Ilz creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 88 away

creates per match

Rottenmann
1.47
Ilz
1.69

allows per match

Rottenmann
1.97
Ilz
1.85

finishing

Rottenmann+0.00on par
Ilz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rottenmann ↓

Ilz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rottenmann or draw
58%
Rottenmann or Ilz
78%
Draw or Ilz
65%

Winning margin

Rottenmann wins by 2+
18%
Ilz wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rottenmann 1+ goals
81%
Rottenmann 2+ goals
49%
Rottenmann 3+ goals
23%
Ilz 1+ goals
84%
Ilz 2+ goals
54%
Ilz 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Rottenmann (draw refunded)
46%
Ilz (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rottenmann at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Ilz away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.85 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rottenmann attack 1.47 + Ilz defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ilz attack 1.69 + Rottenmann defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rottenmann scores more
35%
level
22%
Ilz scores more
42%

Ilz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ilz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rottenmann vs Ilz

Ilz beat Rottenmann 3-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Paltenstadion in Rottenmann.