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Rottenmann vs Hitthaller St. Michael — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Rottenmann
Rottenmann
FT
2 – 1
Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
10/31/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 12Paltenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rottenmann53%
×Draw21%
Hitthaller St. Michael27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rottenmann
2.19
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.52

Rottenmann creates 44% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Rottenmann
1.47
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.07

allows per match

Rottenmann
1.97
Hitthaller St. Michael
2.90

finishing

Rottenmann+0.00on par
Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rottenmann ↓

Hitthaller St. Michael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Rottenmann or draw
73%
Rottenmann or Hitthaller St. Michael
79%
Draw or Hitthaller St. Michael
47%

Winning margin

Rottenmann wins by 2+
32%
Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rottenmann 1+ goals
89%
Rottenmann 2+ goals
64%
Rottenmann 3+ goals
37%
Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
78%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
45%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rottenmann (draw refunded)
66%
Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rottenmann at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Hitthaller St. Michael away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rottenmann attack 1.47 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.19

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.07 + Rottenmann defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rottenmann scores more
53%
level
21%
Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
27%

Rottenmann at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rottenmann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rottenmann vs Hitthaller St. Michael

Rottenmann beat Hitthaller St. Michael 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Paltenstadion in Rottenmann.