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Rotor Volgograd vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2018

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
7/31/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Rotor Volgograd42%
×Draw29%
Volgar Astrakhan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.21
Volgar Astrakhan
0.97

Rotor Volgograd creates 25% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 76 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.18
Volgar Astrakhan
0.93

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.00
Volgar Astrakhan
1.24

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
71%
Rotor Volgograd or Volgar Astrakhan
71%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
58%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
18%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
70%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
34%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
12%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
62%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
25%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
59%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 87 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.18 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
42%
level
29%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
29%

Rotor Volgograd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotor Volgograd vs Volgar Astrakhan

Rotor Volgograd and Volgar Astrakhan drew 1-1 in First League on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Volgograd Arena in Volgograd.