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Rotor Volgograd vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2024

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
Preview
15:00
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
4/10/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Volgograd Arena
40%
Rotor Volgograd
model favours
40%30%30%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rotor Volgograd40%
×Draw30%
Torpedo Moskva30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.14
Torpedo Moskva
0.93

Rotor Volgograd creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 40 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.32
Torpedo Moskva
1.18

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.68
Torpedo Moskva
0.95

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
70%
Rotor Volgograd or Torpedo Moskva
70%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
60%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
17%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
68%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
32%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
11%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
61%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
24%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
58%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.68 · 38 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.32 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.18 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
40%
level
30%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
30%

Rotor Volgograd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
  • Rotor Volgograd win just 24% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Volgograd
LLW
Moskva
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rotor Volgograd host Torpedo Moskva

April 10, 2027: Rotor Volgograd take on Torpedo Moskva in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rotor Volgograd host Torpedo Moskva at Volgograd Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.