Rotor Volgograd 1–1 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats

Rotor Volgograd

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Torpedo Moskva

10/3/2021

First League · Round 15Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Rotor Volgograd36%

×Draw29%

Torpedo Moskva36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotor VolgogradExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

Rotor Volgograd

1.11

Torpedo Moskva

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 104 away

1.18

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd

1.18

Torpedo Moskva

1.22

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd

1.00

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw

64%

Rotor Volgograd or Torpedo Moskva

71%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

64%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

14%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

67%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

30%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

10%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

67%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

30%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

50%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 87 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.18 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more

36%

level

29%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

36%

Rotor Volgograd at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff