Rotor Volgograd 2–0 Rodina Moskva: Result & Stats

Rotor Volgograd

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rodina Moskva

4/22/2026

First League · Round 30Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Rotor Volgograd34%

×Draw29%

Rodina Moskva37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotor VolgogradExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.16

Rotor Volgograd

1.09

Rodina Moskva

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 68 away

1.22

creates per match

1.32

0.99

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd

1.22

Rodina Moskva

1.32

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd

0.99

Rodina Moskva

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Rodina Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw

63%

Rotor Volgograd or Rodina Moskva

71%

Draw or Rodina Moskva

66%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

13%

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

66%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

30%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

10%

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals

69%

Rodina Moskva 2+ goals

32%

Rodina Moskva 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

48%

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.99 · 86 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.22 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more

34%

level

29%

Rodina Moskva scores more

37%

Rodina Moskva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff