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Rotor Volgograd vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2024

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
Preview
15:00
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
4/17/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Volgograd Arena
37%
Rotor Volgograd
model favours
37%30%33%

Rotor Volgograd win just 24% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rotor Volgograd37%
×Draw30%
Nizhny Novgorod33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.11
Nizhny Novgorod
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 10 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.40

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.69
Nizhny Novgorod
0.90

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
67%
Rotor Volgograd or Nizhny Novgorod
70%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
63%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
15%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
67%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
30%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
10%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
65%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
28%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
53%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.69 · 39 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.33 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.40 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
37%
level
30%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
33%

Rotor Volgograd at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • Rotor Volgograd sit 15, Nizhny Novgorod 2 in the table
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Volgograd
LLW
Novgorod
WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rotor Volgograd host Nizhny Novgorod

April 17, 2027: Rotor Volgograd take on Nizhny Novgorod in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rotor Volgograd host Nizhny Novgorod at Volgograd Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.