Nizhny Novgorod 4–2 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

Nizhny Novgorod

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Rotor Volgograd

S. Lapinsky 82'

V. Grulev 45+3' (pen)

G. Popolitov 33'

A. Sokolov 31'

Emerson 44', 41'

7/12/2026

First League · Round 1Sovcombank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod41%

×Draw27%

Rotor Volgograd32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.12

Nizhny Novgorod

1.32

Rotor Volgograd

1.12

Nizhny Novgorod creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 41 away

1.64

creates per match

1.15

1.09

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.64

Rotor Volgograd

1.15

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.09

Rotor Volgograd

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

68%

Nizhny Novgorod or Rotor Volgograd

73%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

59%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

19%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

73%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

38%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

15%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

67%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

31%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

57%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.64 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.15 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

41%

level

27%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

32%

Nizhny Novgorod at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

24'

31'

33'

41'

44'

45+2'

45+3'

V. GrulevPenalty

60'

A. Eldarushev← A. Khokhlachev

60'

P. Gorelov← M. Khramtsov

63'

A. Eldarushev

64'

A. Simonyan

66'

Y. Gudkov← A. Timofeev

66'

M. Maiga← Y. Koledin

74'

A. Balboa← V. Grulev

74'

S. Lapinsky← G. Popolitov

75'

N. Plotnikov← M. Umnikov

75'

I. Rodionov← A. Simonyan

81'

A. Khubulov← S. Aliev

82'

S. Lapinsky

89'

N. Poyarkov

90'

V. Sarveli← T. Komissarov

Nizhny4-2-3-1

Rotor5-4-1

9

▼

Aliev

10

▼

Simonyan

6

▼

Umnikov

5

Troshechk

7

▼

Khohlache

16

Poyarkov

25

⚽2

Émerson

23

▼

8

15

13

30

25

17

2

3

▼

Koledin

94

▼

Timofeev

78

Kalinskiy

18

⚽

Sokolov

72

▼

Komissaro

11

⚽

▼

Popolitov

27

⚽

▼

Grulev

Manager: Vadim Garanin

66'▲Y. Gudkov←▼A. Timofeev

66'▲M. Maiga←▼Y. Koledin

74'▲A. Balboa←▼V. Grulev

74'▲S. Lapinsky←▼G. Popolitov

90'▲V. Sarveli←▼T. Komissarov

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

66Gudkov8Maiga93Lapinsky10Balboa9Sarvelyi98Imamov4Evgenyev22Kakkoev83Ishchenko80Tsarukyan69Sidorenko77Ivlev

Manager: Dmitriy Parfenov

60'▲A. Eldarushev←▼A. Khokhlachev

60'▲P. Gorelov←▼M. Khramtsov

75'▲N. Plotnikov←▼M. Umnikov

75'▲I. Rodionov←▼A. Simonyan

81'▲A. Khubulov←▼S. Aliev

Rotor Volgograd substitutes

22Gorelov77Eldarushev19Plotnikov69Rodionov98Khubulov50Sugrobov99Litvenok44Dadić90Tsipushtanov77Revazov