Rotor Volgograd 4–2 Luch-Energiya: Result & Stats

Rotor Volgograd

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Luch-Energiya

4/21/2018

First League · Round 34Volgograd Arena (Volgograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Rotor Volgograd43%

×Draw29%

Luch-Energiya28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotor VolgogradExpected goals in this matchLuch-Energiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.92

Rotor Volgograd

1.23

Luch-Energiya

0.92

Rotor Volgograd creates 34% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 40 away

1.22

creates per match

0.85

0.99

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd

1.22

Luch-Energiya

0.85

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd

0.99

Luch-Energiya

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Luch-Energiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Luch-Energiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw

72%

Rotor Volgograd or Luch-Energiya

71%

Draw or Luch-Energiya

57%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

19%

Luch-Energiya wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

71%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

35%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

13%

Luch-Energiya 1+ goals

60%

Luch-Energiya 2+ goals

23%

Luch-Energiya 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

61%

Luch-Energiya (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.99 · 86 matches

Luch-Energiya away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.23 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.22 + Luch-Energiya defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Luch-Energiya attack 0.85 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more

43%

level

29%

Luch-Energiya scores more

28%

Rotor Volgograd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff