Rotor Volgograd vs Leningradets

Rotor Volgograd

Preview

16:00

Leningradets

11/7/2026

First League · Round 17Volgograd Arena

44%

Rotor Volgograd

model favours

44%27%29%

Leningradets score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

under 2.5 goals

48%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rotor Volgograd44%

×Draw27%

Leningradets29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotor VolgogradExpected goals in this matchLeningradets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.04

Rotor Volgograd

1.36

Leningradets

1.04

Rotor Volgograd creates 31% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.40

0.69

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd

1.33

Leningradets

1.40

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd

0.69

Leningradets

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Leningradets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw

71%

Rotor Volgograd or Leningradets

73%

Draw or Leningradets

56%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

21%

Leningradets wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

74%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

39%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

16%

Leningradets 1+ goals

65%

Leningradets 2+ goals

28%

Leningradets 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

61%

Leningradets (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.69 · 39 matches

Leningradets away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.33 + Leningradets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Leningradets attack 1.40 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more

44%

level

27%

Leningradets scores more

29%

Rotor Volgograd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 29% of Leningradets’s matches
Rotor Volgograd and Leningradets have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Volgograd

LLW

Leningradets

LLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff