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Leningradets vs Rotor Volgograd — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Leningradets
Leningradets
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
A. Yakovlev 77'
M. Bachinski 38'
I. Safronov 51'
M. Beljaev 18' (OG)
1/28/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sural Hotel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leningradets40%
×Draw26%
Rotor Volgograd34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
1.38
Rotor Volgograd
1.25

Leningradets creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Leningradets
1.25
Rotor Volgograd
1.00

allows per match

Leningradets
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.50

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
66%
Leningradets or Rotor Volgograd
74%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
60%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
19%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
75%
Leningradets 2+ goals
40%
Leningradets 3+ goals
16%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
71%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
36%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
54%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 1.25 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.00 + Leningradets defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leningradets scores more
40%
level
26%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
34%

Leningradets at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
M. BeljaevOwn goal
38'
M. Bachinski
51'
I. Safronov
77'
A. Yakovlev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leningradets vs Rotor Volgograd

Leningradets and Rotor Volgograd drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 28, 2024.

Goals: M. Beljaev (18' o.g.), M. Bachinski (38'), I. Safronov (51'), A. Yakovlev (77').

The match was played at Sural Hotel in Manavgat.