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Rotor Volgograd vs Legion Dynamo — Cup 2019

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
9/13/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundVolgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rotor Volgograd71%
×Draw18%
Legion Dynamo12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
2.33
Legion Dynamo
0.83

Rotor Volgograd creates 181% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.50
Legion Dynamo
1.17

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.50
Legion Dynamo
3.17

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Legion Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
88%
Rotor Volgograd or Legion Dynamo
82%
Draw or Legion Dynamo
29%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
47%
Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
90%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
67%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
41%
Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
56%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
20%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
86%
Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.50 + Legion Dynamo defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

Legion Dynamo attack 1.17 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
71%
level
18%
Legion Dynamo scores more
12%

Rotor Volgograd at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotor Volgograd vs Legion Dynamo

Rotor Volgograd beat Legion Dynamo 3-0 in Cup on September 13, 2023.

The match was played at Volgograd Arena in Volgograd.