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Rotor Volgograd vs KAMAZ — First League 2024

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
Preview
16:00
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
11/28/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Volgograd Arena
48%
Rotor Volgograd
model favours
48%30%22%

Rotor Volgograd have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
36%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rotor Volgograd48%
×Draw30%
KAMAZ22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.23
KAMAZ
0.72

Rotor Volgograd creates 71% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 43 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.31
KAMAZ
0.77

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.67
KAMAZ
1.14

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
78%
Rotor Volgograd or KAMAZ
70%
Draw or KAMAZ
52%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
22%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
71%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
35%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
13%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
51%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
16%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
69%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.67 · 36 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.31 + KAMAZ defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

KAMAZ attack 0.77 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
48%
level
30%
KAMAZ scores more
22%

Rotor Volgograd at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Volgograd
LLW
KAMAZ
LDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rotor Volgograd face KAMAZ (First League)

First League returns with Rotor Volgograd hosting KAMAZ. Match starts November 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rotor Volgograd host KAMAZ at Volgograd Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.