KAMAZ 0–2 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

KAMAZ

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rotor Volgograd

I. Oulad Omar 76' (pen)

R. Minaev 13'

4/6/2022

First League · Round 31Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

KAMAZ38%

×Draw29%

Rotor Volgograd32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAMAZExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.02

KAMAZ

1.13

Rotor Volgograd

1.02

KAMAZ creates 11% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

1.31

creates per match

1.06

0.97

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

KAMAZ

1.31

Rotor Volgograd

1.06

allows per match

KAMAZ

0.97

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw

68%

KAMAZ or Rotor Volgograd

71%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

62%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+

16%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals

68%

KAMAZ 2+ goals

31%

KAMAZ 3+ goals

11%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

64%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

27%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)

54%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

KAMAZ scores more

38%

level

29%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

32%

KAMAZ at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

R. Minaev

44'

Aleksandr Kulikov

46'

V. Paltsev← I. Badrtdinov

58'

Nikolai Kipiani

60'

V. Svezhov← O. Kalugin

60'

D. Lopatin← D. Acosta

60'

N. Kashaev← B. Sadykov

61'

Danil Pelikh

69'

I. Oulad Omar← I. Beriashvili

73'

R. Ayukin← A. Smirnov

76'

I. Oulad OmarPenalty

79'

84'

87'

87'

90+4'

S. Serchenkov← A. Chukanov

90+1'

V. Shakhov← R. Minaev

KAMAZ3-4-3

Rotor3-4-2-1

10

⚽

▼

Minaev

9

▼

8

7

13

2

3

4

▼

22

28

1

1

44

▼

5

3

37

27

▼

Kalugin

33

Zamaliev

12

▼

Smirnov

9

▼

Acosta

29

▼

Badrtdino

57

Kazimir

Manager: I. Akhmetzyanov

46'▲V. Paltsev←▼I. Badrtdinov

60'▲V. Svezhov←▼O. Kalugin

60'▲D. Lopatin←▼D. Acosta

60'▲N. Kashaev←▼B. Sadykov

73'▲R. Ayukin←▼A. Smirnov

KAMAZ substitutes

88Paltsev6Svezhov11Lopatin70Kashaev7Ayukin2Morozov13Ionin16Arzhevitin42Kirillov

Manager: A. Kulikov

69'▲I. Oulad Omar←▼I. Beriashvili

90+4'▲S. Serchenkov←▼A. Chukanov

90+1'▲V. Shakhov←▼R. Minaev

Rotor Volgograd substitutes

6Omar11Serchenkov31Shakhov19Abdullaev20Shkolik34Repin61Golosov

First League: KAMAZ 0–2 Rotor Volgograd

Rotor Volgograd beat KAMAZ 2-0 in First League on April 6, 2022.

Goals: R. Minaev (13'), I. Oulad Omar (76' pen).

The match was played at Stadion KAMAZ in Naberezhnye Chelny.

KAMAZ vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: KAMAZ 0–2 Rotor Volgograd