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Rotor Volgograd vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2026

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
M. Sultonov 85'
D. Prutsev 61'
R. Ezhov 38'
5/25/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 38Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rotor Volgograd44%
×Draw27%
Chertanovo Moscow30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.40
Chertanovo Moscow
1.10

Rotor Volgograd creates 27% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.20
Chertanovo Moscow
1.22

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.99
Chertanovo Moscow
1.59

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
70%
Rotor Volgograd or Chertanovo Moscow
73%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
56%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
21%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
75%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
41%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
17%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
67%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
30%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
60%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.99 · 84 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.20 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.22 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
44%
level
27%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
30%

Rotor Volgograd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
R. Ezhov
19'
V. Bartasevich
26'
V. Lobkarev
38'
R. Ezhov
55'
M. Vasiliev
58'
V. Parshikov
61'
D. Prutsev
65'
Y. Gorshkov
73'
A. Katsalapov
85'
A. Popov
85'
M. Sultonov
89'
K. Kolesnichenko
90'
A. Bairyev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Rotor Volgograd 1–2 Chertanovo Moscow

Chertanovo Moscow beat Rotor Volgograd 2-1 in First League on May 25, 2019.

Goals: R. Ezhov (38'), D. Prutsev (61'), M. Sultonov (85').

The match was played at Volgograd Arena.