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Rotor Volgograd vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2024

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
Preview
15:00
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
4/24/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Volgograd Arena
Big match
46%
Rotor Volgograd
model favours
46%30%24%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Rotor Volgograd46%
×Draw30%
Arsenal Tula24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.23
Arsenal Tula
0.81

Rotor Volgograd creates 52% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 40 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.33
Arsenal Tula
0.93

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.69
Arsenal Tula
1.13

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
76%
Rotor Volgograd or Arsenal Tula
70%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
54%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
21%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
71%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
35%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
13%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
56%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
19%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
65%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.69 · 39 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.33 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Arsenal Tula attack 0.93 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
46%
level
30%
Arsenal Tula scores more
24%

Rotor Volgograd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rotor Volgograd win just 24% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Rotor Volgograd sit 15, Arsenal Tula 5 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Volgograd
LLW
Tula
WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rotor Volgograd host Arsenal Tula

April 24, 2027: Rotor Volgograd take on Arsenal Tula in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rotor Volgograd host Arsenal Tula at Volgograd Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.