Rotor Volgograd 1–0 Arsenal Tula: Result & Stats

Rotor Volgograd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arsenal Tula

Flamarion 81' (pen)

12/16/2020

Premier League · Round 19Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rotor Volgograd32%

×Draw29%

Arsenal Tula40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotor VolgogradExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.19

Rotor Volgograd

1.03

Arsenal Tula

1.19

Arsenal Tula creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 61 away

0.31

creates per match

0.82

1.56

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd

0.31

Arsenal Tula

0.82

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd

1.56

Arsenal Tula

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Arsenal Tula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw

60%

Rotor Volgograd or Arsenal Tula

71%

Draw or Arsenal Tula

68%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

12%

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

64%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

28%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

9%

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

70%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

33%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

44%

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 0.31, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 0.31 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.03

Arsenal Tula attack 0.82 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more

32%

level

29%

Arsenal Tula scores more

40%

Arsenal Tula at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

C. Gogoua

Rotor Volgograd · D

7.7

Match Events

15'

16'

37'

58'

63'

S. Serchenkov← N. Kipiani

69'

A. Ponce← K. Mullin

73'

Georgi Kostadinov

75'

E. Kangwa← S. Tkachev

81'

FlamarionPenalty

82'

Mohammed Kadiri

84'

E. Lutsenko← N. Rasskazov

87'

Igor Gorbatenko

87'

D. Khlusevich← A. Lomovitskiy

90'

Anri Khagush

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotorArsenal

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots20

5Corners3

18Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots20

2On Target4

4Off Target5

4Blocked11

6Inside Box10

4Outside Box10

Passing

39%Possession61%

279Total Passes415

181Accurate Passes313

65%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls18

2Yellow Cards6

0Offsides2