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Rotor Volgograd U20 vs Sochi U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Rotor Volgograd U20
Rotor Volgograd U20
FT
0 – 2
Sochi U20
Sochi U20
P. Ipole 58'
I. Mokaev 30'
12/15/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 14Stadion FGUP Yugsport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Rotor Volgograd U2036%
×Draw25%
Sochi U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd U20
1.42
Sochi U20
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 92 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd U20
1.14
Sochi U20
1.33

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd U20
1.64
Sochi U20
1.71

finishing

Rotor Volgograd U20+0.00on par
Sochi U20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd U20 ↓

Sochi U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd U20 or draw
61%
Rotor Volgograd U20 or Sochi U20
75%
Draw or Sochi U20
64%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd U20 wins by 2+
17%
Sochi U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd U20 1+ goals
76%
Rotor Volgograd U20 2+ goals
41%
Rotor Volgograd U20 3+ goals
17%
Sochi U20 1+ goals
77%
Sochi U20 2+ goals
43%
Sochi U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd U20 (draw refunded)
48%
Sochi U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd U20 at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Sochi U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd U20 attack 1.14 + Sochi U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sochi U20 attack 1.33 + Rotor Volgograd U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rotor Volgograd U20 scores more
36%
level
25%
Sochi U20 scores more
39%

Sochi U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sochi U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
I. Mokaev
58'
P. Ipole

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Rotor Volgograd U20 0–2 Sochi U20

Sochi U20 beat Rotor Volgograd U20 2-0 in Youth Championship on December 15, 2020.

Goals: I. Mokaev (30'), P. Ipole (58').

The match was played at Stadion FGUP Yugsport in Sochi.