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Rotor-2 vs Kuban Kholding — Second League - Group 1 2020

Rotor-2
Rotor-2
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
3/8/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rotor-219%
×Draw22%
Kuban Kholding59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor-2
0.95
Kuban Kholding
1.86

Kuban Kholding creates 96% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 91 away

creates per match

Rotor-2
0.94
Kuban Kholding
1.35

allows per match

Rotor-2
2.38
Kuban Kholding
0.97

finishing

Rotor-2+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor-2 ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rotor-2 or draw
41%
Rotor-2 or Kuban Kholding
78%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
81%

Winning margin

Rotor-2 wins by 2+
6%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Rotor-2 1+ goals
61%
Rotor-2 2+ goals
25%
Rotor-2 3+ goals
7%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
84%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
55%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Rotor-2 (draw refunded)
24%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor-2 at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor-2 attack 0.94 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Rotor-2 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rotor-2 scores more
19%
level
22%
Kuban Kholding scores more
59%

Kuban Kholding at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotor-2 vs Kuban Kholding

Rotor-2 and Kuban Kholding drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on March 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.