Rotor-2 1–2 Forte Taganrog: Result & Stats

Rotor-2

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Forte Taganrog

8/21/2021

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Zenit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rotor-219%

×Draw21%

Forte Taganrog59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotor-2Expected goals in this matchForte Taganrog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.00

Rotor-2

1.04

Forte Taganrog

2.00

Forte Taganrog creates 92% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 64 away

0.94

creates per match

1.61

2.38

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Rotor-2

0.94

Forte Taganrog

1.61

allows per match

Rotor-2

2.38

Forte Taganrog

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotor-2+0.00on par

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor-2 ↓

Forte Taganrog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rotor-2 or draw

41%

Rotor-2 or Forte Taganrog

79%

Draw or Forte Taganrog

81%

Winning margin

Rotor-2 wins by 2+

7%

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Rotor-2 1+ goals

65%

Rotor-2 2+ goals

28%

Rotor-2 3+ goals

9%

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals

86%

Forte Taganrog 2+ goals

59%

Forte Taganrog 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Rotor-2 (draw refunded)

24%

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor-2 at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor-2 attack 0.94 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Rotor-2 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rotor-2 scores more

19%

level

21%

Forte Taganrog scores more

59%

Forte Taganrog at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff