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Rotor-2 vs Biolog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Rotor-2
Rotor-2
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Biolog
Biolog
5/6/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Stadion Zenit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rotor-226%
×Draw23%
Biolog51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor-2
1.27
Biolog
1.84

Biolog creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 73 away

creates per match

Rotor-2
0.94
Biolog
1.30

allows per match

Rotor-2
2.38
Biolog
1.59

finishing

Rotor-2+0.00on par
Biolog+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor-2 ↓

Biolog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rotor-2 or draw
49%
Rotor-2 or Biolog
77%
Draw or Biolog
74%

Winning margin

Rotor-2 wins by 2+
11%
Biolog wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Rotor-2 1+ goals
72%
Rotor-2 2+ goals
36%
Rotor-2 3+ goals
14%
Biolog 1+ goals
84%
Biolog 2+ goals
55%
Biolog 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Rotor-2 (draw refunded)
34%
Biolog (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor-2 at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Biolog away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor-2 attack 0.94 + Biolog defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Biolog attack 1.30 + Rotor-2 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rotor-2 scores more
26%
level
23%
Biolog scores more
51%

Biolog at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Biolog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotor-2 vs Biolog

Biolog beat Rotor-2 3-1 in Second League - Group 1 on May 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Zenit in Volgograd.