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Rotkreuz vs Servette FC — Schweizer Cup 2019

Rotkreuz
Rotkreuz
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Servette FC
Servette FCadvanced
3/2/2023Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · Quarter-finalsSportpark Rotkreuz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rotkreuz14%
×Draw18%
Servette FC68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotkreuz
1.03
Servette FC
2.46

Servette FC creates 139% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rotkreuz
1.25
Servette FC
3.41

allows per match

Rotkreuz
1.50
Servette FC
0.82

finishing

Rotkreuz+0.00on par
Servette FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotkreuz ↓

Servette FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Rotkreuz or draw
32%
Rotkreuz or Servette FC
82%
Draw or Servette FC
86%

Winning margin

Rotkreuz wins by 2+
5%
Servette FC wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Rotkreuz 1+ goals
64%
Rotkreuz 2+ goals
28%
Rotkreuz 3+ goals
9%
Servette FC 1+ goals
91%
Servette FC 2+ goals
70%
Servette FC 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Rotkreuz (draw refunded)
17%
Servette FC (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotkreuz at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Servette FC away — creates 3.41, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotkreuz attack 1.25 + Servette FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Servette FC attack 3.41 + Rotkreuz defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Rotkreuz scores more
14%
level
18%
Servette FC scores more
68%

Servette FC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schweizer Cup: Rotkreuz 0–3 Servette FC

Servette FC beat Rotkreuz 3-0 in Schweizer Cup on March 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Rotkreuz 2 in Risch-Rotkreuz.