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Rotkreuz vs FC Wohlen — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Rotkreuz
Rotkreuz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Wohlen
FC Wohlen
4/27/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Sportpark Rotkreuz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rotkreuz41%
×Draw24%
FC Wohlen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotkreuz
1.58
FC Wohlen
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

creates per match

Rotkreuz
1.62
FC Wohlen
1.44

allows per match

Rotkreuz
1.47
FC Wohlen
1.55

finishing

Rotkreuz+0.00on par
FC Wohlen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotkreuz ↓

FC Wohlen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rotkreuz or draw
65%
Rotkreuz or FC Wohlen
76%
Draw or FC Wohlen
59%

Winning margin

Rotkreuz wins by 2+
20%
FC Wohlen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rotkreuz 1+ goals
79%
Rotkreuz 2+ goals
47%
Rotkreuz 3+ goals
21%
FC Wohlen 1+ goals
77%
FC Wohlen 2+ goals
43%
FC Wohlen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rotkreuz (draw refunded)
53%
FC Wohlen (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotkreuz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

FC Wohlen away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotkreuz attack 1.62 + FC Wohlen defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

FC Wohlen attack 1.44 + Rotkreuz defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rotkreuz scores more
41%
level
24%
FC Wohlen scores more
35%

Rotkreuz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rotkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotkreuz vs FC Wohlen

Rotkreuz beat FC Wohlen 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Rotkreuz 2 in Risch-Rotkreuz.