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Rotkreuz vs FC Schaffhausen — Schweizer Cup 2019

Rotkreuz
Rotkreuzadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Schaffhausen
FC Schaffhausen
11/8/2022Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · Round of 16Sportpark Rotkreuz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rotkreuz12%
×Draw15%
FC Schaffhausen73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotkreuz
1.13
FC Schaffhausen
2.90

FC Schaffhausen creates 157% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rotkreuz
1.25
FC Schaffhausen
4.29

allows per match

Rotkreuz
1.50
FC Schaffhausen
1.00

finishing

Rotkreuz+0.00on par
FC Schaffhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotkreuz ↓

FC Schaffhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Rotkreuz or draw
27%
Rotkreuz or FC Schaffhausen
85%
Draw or FC Schaffhausen
88%

Winning margin

Rotkreuz wins by 2+
4%
FC Schaffhausen wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Rotkreuz 1+ goals
68%
Rotkreuz 2+ goals
31%
Rotkreuz 3+ goals
11%
FC Schaffhausen 1+ goals
94%
FC Schaffhausen 2+ goals
78%
FC Schaffhausen 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Rotkreuz (draw refunded)
14%
FC Schaffhausen (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotkreuz at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

FC Schaffhausen away — creates 4.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotkreuz attack 1.25 + FC Schaffhausen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

FC Schaffhausen attack 4.29 + Rotkreuz defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Rotkreuz scores more
12%
level
15%
FC Schaffhausen scores more
73%

FC Schaffhausen at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "FC Schaffhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotkreuz vs FC Schaffhausen

Rotkreuz beat FC Schaffhausen 2-1 in Schweizer Cup on November 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Rotkreuz 2 in Risch-Rotkreuz.