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Rotkreuz vs Delémont — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Rotkreuz
Rotkreuz
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Delémont
Delémont
4/1/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Sportpark Rotkreuz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rotkreuz39%
×Draw23%
Delémont37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotkreuz
1.67
Delémont
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 57 away

creates per match

Rotkreuz
1.62
Delémont
1.77

allows per match

Rotkreuz
1.47
Delémont
1.72

finishing

Rotkreuz+0.00on par
Delémont+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotkreuz ↓

Delémont →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Rotkreuz or draw
63%
Rotkreuz or Delémont
77%
Draw or Delémont
61%

Winning margin

Rotkreuz wins by 2+
20%
Delémont wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Rotkreuz 1+ goals
81%
Rotkreuz 2+ goals
50%
Rotkreuz 3+ goals
23%
Delémont 1+ goals
80%
Delémont 2+ goals
48%
Delémont 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Rotkreuz (draw refunded)
51%
Delémont (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotkreuz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Delémont away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.72 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotkreuz attack 1.62 + Delémont defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Delémont attack 1.77 + Rotkreuz defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rotkreuz scores more
39%
level
23%
Delémont scores more
37%

Rotkreuz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rotkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Rotkreuz 3–2 Delémont

Rotkreuz beat Delémont 3-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Rotkreuz 2 in Risch-Rotkreuz.