Röthis 0–1 Schwaz: Result & Stats

Röthis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Schwaz

11/2/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 14Sportplatz an der Ratz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Röthis43%

×Draw24%

Schwaz32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RöthisExpected goals in this matchSchwaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.37

Röthis

1.62

Schwaz

1.37

Röthis creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 63 away

1.64

creates per match

1.27

1.47

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Röthis

1.64

Schwaz

1.27

allows per match

Röthis

1.47

Schwaz

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Röthis+0.00on par

Schwaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röthis ↓

Schwaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Röthis or draw

68%

Röthis or Schwaz

76%

Draw or Schwaz

57%

Winning margin

Röthis wins by 2+

22%

Schwaz wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Röthis 1+ goals

80%

Röthis 2+ goals

48%

Röthis 3+ goals

22%

Schwaz 1+ goals

75%

Schwaz 2+ goals

40%

Schwaz 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Röthis (draw refunded)

57%

Schwaz (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röthis at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

Schwaz away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.60 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röthis attack 1.64 + Schwaz defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62

Schwaz attack 1.27 + Röthis defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Röthis scores more

43%

level

24%

Schwaz scores more

32%

Röthis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Röthis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff