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Röthis vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil — Regionalliga - West 2018

Röthis
Röthis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
8/10/2022Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Vorarlberg - 4Sportplatz an der Ratz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Röthis53%
×Draw20%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Röthis
2.32
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.63

Röthis creates 42% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 52 away

creates per match

Röthis
1.64
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.79

allows per match

Röthis
1.47
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
3.00

finishing

Röthis+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röthis ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Röthis or draw
73%
Röthis or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
80%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
47%

Winning margin

Röthis wins by 2+
32%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Röthis 1+ goals
90%
Röthis 2+ goals
67%
Röthis 3+ goals
40%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
80%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
48%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Röthis (draw refunded)
66%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röthis at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.79, concedes 3.00 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röthis attack 1.64 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.32

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.79 + Röthis defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Röthis scores more
53%
level
20%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
27%

Röthis at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Röthis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Röthis 2–1 Rot-Weiß Rankweil

Röthis beat Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2-1 in Regionalliga - West on August 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz an der Ratz in Röthis.