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Röthis vs Langenegg — Regionalliga - West 2018

Röthis
Röthis
CANC
00:00
Langenegg
Langenegg
3/22/2020Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Vorarlberg - Eliteliga - 1Sportplatz an der Ratz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Röthis57%
×Draw20%
Langenegg23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Röthis
2.34
Langenegg
1.46

Röthis creates 60% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 24 away

creates per match

Röthis
1.64
Langenegg
1.46

allows per match

Röthis
1.47
Langenegg
3.04

finishing

Röthis+0.00on par
Langenegg+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röthis ↓

Langenegg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Röthis or draw
77%
Röthis or Langenegg
80%
Draw or Langenegg
43%

Winning margin

Röthis wins by 2+
36%
Langenegg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Röthis 1+ goals
90%
Röthis 2+ goals
67%
Röthis 3+ goals
41%
Langenegg 1+ goals
77%
Langenegg 2+ goals
43%
Langenegg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Röthis (draw refunded)
71%
Langenegg (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röthis at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

Langenegg away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röthis attack 1.64 + Langenegg defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.34

Langenegg attack 1.46 + Röthis defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Röthis scores more
57%
level
20%
Langenegg scores more
23%

Röthis at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Röthis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Röthis face Langenegg (Regionalliga - West)

Regionalliga - West returns with Röthis hosting Langenegg. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Röthis host Langenegg at Sportplatz an der Ratz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.