Rothes 1–3 Inverurie Loco Works: Result & Stats

Rothes

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Inverurie Loco Works

J. Maley 90+2'

N. McLean 52'

C. Angus 33', 23'

10/19/2019

FA Cup · 2nd RoundMacKessack Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rothes36%

×Draw23%

Inverurie Loco Works40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RothesExpected goals in this matchInverurie Loco Works

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.67

Rothes

1.58

Inverurie Loco Works

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

1.00

2.33

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Rothes

0.67

Inverurie Loco Works

1.00

allows per match

Rothes

2.33

Inverurie Loco Works

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rothes+0.00on par

Inverurie Loco Works+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rothes ↓

Inverurie Loco Works →

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Rothes or draw

60%

Rothes or Inverurie Loco Works

77%

Draw or Inverurie Loco Works

64%

Winning margin

Rothes wins by 2+

18%

Inverurie Loco Works wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rothes 1+ goals

79%

Rothes 2+ goals

47%

Rothes 3+ goals

21%

Inverurie Loco Works 1+ goals

81%

Inverurie Loco Works 2+ goals

50%

Inverurie Loco Works 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Rothes (draw refunded)

48%

Inverurie Loco Works (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rothes at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Inverurie Loco Works away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rothes attack 0.67 + Inverurie Loco Works defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Inverurie Loco Works attack 1.00 + Rothes defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rothes scores more

36%

level

23%

Inverurie Loco Works scores more

40%

Inverurie Loco Works at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Inverurie Loco Works will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

C. Angus↳ G. Mitchell

33'

C. Angus

52'

N. McLean↳ G. Mitchell

57'

65'

65'

74'

78'

J. Maley← F. Robertson

78'

J. Cooper← S. Burnett

90+2'

J. Maley↳ Gregg Main

Rothes

Inverurie

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Jack

65'▲A. Wilson←▼G. Kerr

65'▲Gregg Main←▼D. Wood

78'▲J. Maley←▼F. Robertson

Rothes substitutes

14Wilson15Main12Maley17Johnstone21Donaldson16MacLeod

Manager: N. Cooper

57'▲A. Watt←▼N. McLean

74'▲N. Gauld←▼R. Stott

78'▲J. Cooper←▼S. Burnett

Inverurie Loco Works substitutes

17Watt14Gauld18Cooper1Cook16Gordon15Michie19Gill

FA Cup: Rothes 1–3 Inverurie Loco Works

Inverurie Loco Works beat Rothes 3-1 in FA Cup on October 19, 2019.

Goals: C. Angus (23', 33'), N. McLean (52'), J. Maley (90+2').

The match was played at MacKessack Park in Rothes.

Rothes vs Inverurie Loco Works — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Rothes 1–3 Inverurie Loco Works