Rotherham 5–1 Walsall: Result & Stats | League One

Rotherham

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Walsall

L. Frecklington 88', 31', 13'

J. Taylor 24', 16'

A. Bakayoko 49'

9/12/2017

League One · Round 7New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rotherham48%

×Draw25%

Walsall26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.09

Rotherham

1.57

Walsall

1.09

Rotherham creates 44% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 31 away

1.70

creates per match

0.97

1.21

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Rotherham

1.70

Walsall

0.97

allows per match

Rotherham

1.21

Walsall

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

74%

Rotherham or Walsall

75%

Draw or Walsall

52%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

25%

Walsall wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

79%

Rotherham 2+ goals

46%

Rotherham 3+ goals

21%

Walsall 1+ goals

66%

Walsall 2+ goals

30%

Walsall 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

65%

Walsall (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.21 · 96 matches

Walsall away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.70 + Walsall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Walsall attack 0.97 + Rotherham defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rotherham scores more

48%

level

25%

Walsall scores more

26%

Rotherham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

L. Frecklington

16'

J. Taylor↳ R. Williams

24'

J. Taylor

31'

L. Frecklington↳ W. Vaulks

32'

F. Cuvelier← S. Donnellan

41'

Amadou Bakayoko

47'

K. Morris← E. Oztumer

49'

A. Bakayoko

62'

David Ball← K. Moore

71'

A. Forde← J. Taylor

71'

D. Agyei← A. Bakayoko

82'

J. Newell← R. Towell

88'

L. Frecklington↳ A. Forde

Possession

Shots

Statistics

RotherhamWalsall

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots7

3Corners4

10Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots7

8On Target2

4Off Target1

0Blocked4

10Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3