Rotherham 2–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

M. Wilks 72'

J. Hugill 70'

10/26/2024

League One · Round 14AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Rotherham42%

×Draw24%

Stevenage34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.41

Rotherham

1.58

Stevenage

1.41

Rotherham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.38

creates per match

1.13

1.69

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Rotherham

1.38

Stevenage

1.13

allows per match

Rotherham

1.69

Stevenage

1.79

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Rotherham-0.38scores less

Stevenage-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

66%

Rotherham or Stevenage

76%

Draw or Stevenage

58%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

21%

Stevenage wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

79%

Rotherham 2+ goals

47%

Rotherham 3+ goals

21%

Stevenage 1+ goals

76%

Stevenage 2+ goals

41%

Stevenage 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

55%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 8 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.79 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.38 + Stevenage defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Stevenage attack 1.13 + Rotherham defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rotherham scores more

42%

level

24%

Stevenage scores more

34%

Rotherham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Hugill

Rotherham · F

7.5

Match Events

25'

45'

49'

54'

58'

62'

65'

65'

E. List← J. Young

70'

72'

82'

82'

90+1'

90+2'

90+4'

90+3'

A. MacDonald← J. Powell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamStevenage

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots5

5Corners3

19Fouls21

Shots

13Total Shots5

5On Target1

4Off Target2

4Blocked2

8Inside Box1

5Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

304Total Passes289

190Accurate Passes178

63%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls21

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides6