Rotherham 1–0 Plymouth: Result & Stats | League One

Rotherham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Plymouth

J. Rafferty 7'

2/28/2026

League One · Round 35Aesseal New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham30%

×Draw23%

Plymouth47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.81

Rotherham

1.39

Plymouth

1.81

Plymouth creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.55

creates per match

2.00

1.61

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Rotherham

1.55

Plymouth

2.00

allows per match

Rotherham

1.61

Plymouth

1.22

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Rotherham-0.55scores less

Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

53%

Rotherham or Plymouth

77%

Draw or Plymouth

70%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

13%

Plymouth wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

75%

Rotherham 2+ goals

40%

Rotherham 3+ goals

16%

Plymouth 1+ goals

84%

Plymouth 2+ goals

54%

Plymouth 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

39%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.55 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Rotherham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rotherham scores more

30%

level

23%

Plymouth scores more

47%

Plymouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

L. Ashby-Hammond

Plymouth · G

8.3

Match Events

7'

J. Rafferty↳ D. Yearwood

15'

28'

29'

32'

36'

Z. Jules← E. Adegboyega

42'

Julio Pleguezuelo

46'

J. MacKenzie← J. Pleguezuelo

50'

X. Amaechi← T. Finn

53'

S. McWilliams← D. Watmore

53'

75'

77'

81'

81'

81'

J. Paterson← M. Sorinola

81'

O. Oseni← J. Edwards

82'

L. Agbaire← A. Martha

87'

Jack Mackenzie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamPlymouth

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots20

2.66Expected Goals (xG)1.47

3Corners8

11Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots20

7On Target4

7Off Target7

4Blocked9

12Inside Box11

6Outside Box9

Passing

50%Possession50%

312Total Passes305

188Accurate Passes198

60%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls13

5Yellow Cards5

2Offsides3