Rotherham 5–1 Oldham: Result & Stats | League One

Rotherham

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Oldham

J. Yates 89'

A. Forde 87'

K. Moore 78', 73'

M. Ihiekwe 8'

C. Davies 21'

9/23/2017

League One · Round 9New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rotherham61%

×Draw22%

Oldham17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.93

Rotherham

1.95

Oldham

0.93

Rotherham creates 110% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

0.71

1.16

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Rotherham

1.60

Oldham

0.71

allows per match

Rotherham

1.16

Oldham

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

83%

Rotherham or Oldham

78%

Draw or Oldham

39%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

37%

Oldham wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

86%

Rotherham 2+ goals

58%

Rotherham 3+ goals

31%

Oldham 1+ goals

61%

Oldham 2+ goals

24%

Oldham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

78%

Oldham (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.16 · 89 matches

Oldham away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.60 + Oldham defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.95

Oldham attack 0.71 + Rotherham defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rotherham scores more

61%

level

22%

Oldham scores more

17%

Rotherham at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

21'

31'

32'

32'

C. Dummigan← R. McLaughlin

45'

George Edmundson

61'

J. Newell← J. Taylor

62'

Q. Menig← T. Obadeyi

62'

A. Omrani← D. Gardner

68'

73'

78'

81'

84'

87'

89'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

RotherhamOldham

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots6

6Corners7

13Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots6

9On Target2

6Off Target4

11Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Oldham

Rotherham beat Oldham 5-1 in League One on September 23, 2017.

Goals: M. Ihiekwe (8'), C. Davies (21'), K. Moore (73', 78'), A. Forde (87'), J. Yates (89').

Rotherham controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at New York Stadium in Rotherham.

Rotherham vs Oldham — League One 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Oldham