Rotherham 1–0 Millwall: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Millwall

S. Raggett 20'

8/26/2018

Championship · Round 5New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham35%

×Draw28%

Millwall37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.21

Rotherham

1.16

Millwall

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 62 away

1.00

creates per match

1.12

1.30

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Rotherham

1.00

Millwall

1.12

allows per match

Rotherham

1.30

Millwall

1.32

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more

Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

63%

Rotherham or Millwall

72%

Draw or Millwall

65%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

14%

Millwall wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

69%

Rotherham 2+ goals

32%

Rotherham 3+ goals

11%

Millwall 1+ goals

70%

Millwall 2+ goals

34%

Millwall 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

48%

Millwall (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Millwall attack 1.12 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rotherham scores more

35%

level

28%

Millwall scores more

37%

Millwall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

S. Raggett

Rotherham · D

8.3

Match Events

20'

S. Raggett↳ W. Vaulks

22'

Jed Wallace

51'

Ryan Manning

65'

T. Bradshaw← L. Gregory

65'

J. Skalák← A. OBrien

76'

J. Proctor← M. Smith

79'

S. Morison← R. Tunnicliffe

87'

J. Newell← K. Vassell

89'

Connor McLaughlin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamMillwall

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots12

2Corners9

14Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots12

3On Target5

8Off Target5

1Blocked2

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box7

Passing

39%Possession61%

262Total Passes386

145Accurate Passes269

55%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides3