Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Millwall vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
T. Bradshaw 81', 4'
C. Humphreys 66' (OG)
1/1/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Millwall59%
×Draw24%
Rotherham17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.69
Rotherham
0.77

Millwall creates 119% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 8 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.26
Rotherham
0.50

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Rotherham
2.12

finishing

Millwall-0.12scores less
Rotherham+0.13scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
83%
Millwall or Rotherham
76%
Draw or Rotherham
41%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
33%
Rotherham wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
82%
Millwall 2+ goals
50%
Millwall 3+ goals
24%
Rotherham 1+ goals
54%
Rotherham 2+ goals
18%
Rotherham 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
78%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 58 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.12 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Rotherham defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rotherham attack 0.50 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Millwall scores more
59%
level
24%
Rotherham scores more
17%

Millwall at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
T. BradshawMillwallMillwall · F
8.2

Match Events

4'
T. Bradshaw↳ C. Styles
51'
Jake Cooper
66'
C. HumphreysOwn goal
67'
B. Norton-Cuffy← P. Kioso
68'
C. Bramall← S. Ferguson
72'
G. Saville← C. Styles
76'
Jamie Lindsay
81'
T. Bradshaw
83'
B. Afobe← T. Bradshaw
83'
R. Esse← G. Honeyman
83'
T. Burey← A. Voglsammer
88'
J. Shackleton← Z. Flemming

Possession

62%Millwall

Shots

27Millwall

Pass accuracy

58%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallRotherham
Overview
62%Possession38%
27Total Shots5
10Corners1
9Fouls12
Shots
27Total Shots5
11On Target1
8Off Target3
8Blocked1
19Inside Box3
8Outside Box2
Passing
62%Possession38%
379Total Passes242
268Accurate Passes126
71%Pass Accuracy52%
Goalkeeping
1Saves9
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Championship: Millwall 3–0 Rotherham

Millwall beat Rotherham 3-0 in Championship on January 1, 2023.

Goals: T. Bradshaw (4', 81'), C. Humphreys (66' o.g.).

Millwall controlled possession (62%) and registered 27 shots to 5.

The match was played at The Den in London.