Rotherham 1–2 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Middlesbrough

4/21/2021

Championship · Round 43AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Rotherham35%

×Draw26%

Middlesbrough39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.40

Rotherham

1.32

Middlesbrough

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 191 away

1.29

creates per match

1.37

1.42

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Rotherham

1.29

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Rotherham

1.42

Middlesbrough

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

61%

Rotherham or Middlesbrough

74%

Draw or Middlesbrough

65%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

16%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

73%

Rotherham 2+ goals

38%

Rotherham 3+ goals

15%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

75%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

41%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

48%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.42 · 93 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 191 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.29 + Middlesbrough defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Rotherham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rotherham scores more

35%

level

26%

Middlesbrough scores more

39%

Middlesbrough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff