Rotherham 1–2 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Middlesbrough

M. Smith 86' (pen)

J. Obi Mikel 37'

B. Assombalonga 28' (pen)

5/5/2019

Championship · Round 46New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham31%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.34

Rotherham

1.12

Middlesbrough

1.34

Middlesbrough creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 65 away

1.00

creates per match

1.39

1.30

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Rotherham

1.00

Middlesbrough

1.39

allows per match

Rotherham

1.30

Middlesbrough

1.24

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more

Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

58%

Rotherham or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

69%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

12%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

67%

Rotherham 2+ goals

31%

Rotherham 3+ goals

10%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

74%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

39%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

43%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rotherham scores more

31%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

42%

Middlesbrough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Smith

Rotherham · F

7.9

Match Events

28'

B. AssombalongaPenalty

37'

J. Obi Mikel

46'

R. Williams← A. Forde

66'

D. Potter← M. Crooks

76'

K. Vassell← J. Newell

76'

S. Downing← A. Fletcher

82'

A. Clayton← M. Bešić

85'

M. Tavernier← L. Wing

86'

M. SmithPenalty

90'

John Mikel Obi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamMiddlesbrough

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots12

6Corners5

12Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots12

4On Target4

8Off Target7

6Blocked1

12Inside Box10

6Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

404Total Passes310

304Accurate Passes213

75%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls16

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3