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Rotherham vs Ipswich — League One 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ipswich
Ipswich
4/16/2022League OneLeague One · Round 43AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Rotherham39%
×Draw27%
Ipswich34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.32
Ipswich
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 88 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.59
Ipswich
1.30

allows per match

Rotherham
1.14
Ipswich
1.05

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
66%
Rotherham or Ipswich
73%
Draw or Ipswich
61%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
18%
Ipswich wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
73%
Rotherham 2+ goals
38%
Rotherham 3+ goals
15%
Ipswich 1+ goals
70%
Ipswich 2+ goals
34%
Ipswich 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
53%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.59 + Ipswich defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ipswich attack 1.30 + Rotherham defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rotherham scores more
39%
level
27%
Ipswich scores more
34%

Rotherham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Rotherham 1–0 Ipswich

Rotherham beat Ipswich 1-0 in League One on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.