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Rotherham vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
Preview
15:00
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
11/14/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 15Aesseal New York Stadium
Big match
47%
Rotherham
model favours
47%24%29%
1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rotherham47%
×Draw24%
Crawley Town29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.68
Crawley Town
1.27

Rotherham creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 151 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.74
Crawley Town
1.17

allows per match

Rotherham
1.37
Crawley Town
1.62

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
71%
Rotherham or Crawley Town
76%
Draw or Crawley Town
53%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
25%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
81%
Rotherham 2+ goals
50%
Rotherham 3+ goals
24%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
72%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
36%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
62%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.74 + Crawley Town defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.68

Crawley Town attack 1.17 + Rotherham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rotherham scores more
47%
level
24%
Crawley Town scores more
29%

Rotherham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Rotherham
WDDWL
Town
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rotherham vs Crawley Town — Match Preview

Rotherham face Crawley Town on November 14, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rotherham host Crawley Town at Aesseal New York Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.