Crawley Town 1–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rotherham

W. Swan 21'

11/23/2024

League One · Round 17Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Crawley Town36%

×Draw27%

Rotherham37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.24

Crawley Town

1.23

Rotherham

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 99 away

1.30

creates per match

1.15

1.33

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Rotherham

1.15

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.33

Rotherham

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

63%

Crawley Town or Rotherham

73%

Draw or Rotherham

64%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

16%

Rotherham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

71%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

35%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

13%

Rotherham 1+ goals

71%

Rotherham 2+ goals

35%

Rotherham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

50%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Crawley Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Crawley Town scores more

36%

level

27%

Rotherham scores more

37%

Rotherham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

T. Mullarkey

Crawley Town · D

7.6

Match Events

21'

W. Swan↳ T. Mullarkey

46'

Max Anderson

46'

A. MacDonald← C. Humphreys

46'

C. Tiéhi← J. Hungbo

57'

Toby Mullarkey

60'

Shaun McWilliams

62'

J. Holmes← S. McWilliams

64'

T. John-Jules← T. Showunmi

72'

J. Hugill← J. Clarke-Harris

73'

B. Tanimu← A. Adeyemo

73'

C. McGuckin← E. Osong

79'

R. Khaleel← R. Darcy

80'

G. Holohan← Panutche Camará

80'

J. Roles← W. Swan

84'

Joseph Wollacott

90'

Sean Raggett

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyRotherham

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots6

3Corners6

7Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots6

3On Target2

4Off Target3

3Blocked1

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

437Total Passes349

351Accurate Passes244

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4