Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rotherham vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
Preview
15:00
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
2/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 31Aesseal New York Stadium
Big match
44%
Rotherham
model favours
44%25%31%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rotherham44%
×Draw25%
Bristol Rovers31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.58
Bristol Rovers
1.29

Rotherham creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 59 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.74
Bristol Rovers
1.22

allows per match

Rotherham
1.37
Bristol Rovers
1.42

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
69%
Rotherham or Bristol Rovers
75%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
56%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
22%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
79%
Rotherham 2+ goals
47%
Rotherham 3+ goals
21%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
72%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
37%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
59%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.74 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bristol Rovers attack 1.22 + Rotherham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rotherham scores more
44%
level
25%
Bristol Rovers scores more
31%

Rotherham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rotherham
WDDWL
Rovers
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rotherham host Bristol Rovers

February 13, 2027: Rotherham take on Bristol Rovers in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rotherham host Bristol Rovers at Aesseal New York Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.