Rotherham 0–0 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol Rovers

8/17/2024

League One · Round 2AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Rotherham51%

×Draw25%

Bristol Rovers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.08

Rotherham

1.65

Bristol Rovers

1.08

Rotherham creates 53% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 131 away

1.70

creates per match

0.95

1.21

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Rotherham

1.70

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Rotherham

1.21

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

75%

Rotherham or Bristol Rovers

75%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

49%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

27%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

81%

Rotherham 2+ goals

49%

Rotherham 3+ goals

23%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

66%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

29%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

67%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.21 · 96 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.70 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Rotherham defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rotherham scores more

51%

level

25%

Bristol Rovers scores more

25%

Rotherham at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Griffiths

Bristol Rovers · G

8.5

Match Events

12'

Alex MacDonald

32'

Jamie McCart

44'

Ruel Sotiriou

49'

L. McCormick← R. Sotiriou

57'

C. Martin← P. Omochere

67'

S. Sinclair← I. Hutchinson

67'

J. Lindsay← G. Ward

67'

C. Taylor← B. Bilongo

74'

M. Wilks← L. Kelly

74'

S. McWilliams← C. Tiéhi

80'

Jonson Clarke-Harris

84'

E. Osong← S. Nombe

84'

J. Hugill← J. Clarke-Harris

90'

Taylor Moore

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamBristol

Overview

52%Possession48%

20Total Shots5

5Corners0

8Fouls20

Shots

20Total Shots5

5On Target1

11Off Target2

4Blocked2

13Inside Box3

7Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

316Total Passes313

177Accurate Passes183

56%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls20

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2